For those who last paid attention to the University of Tennessee’s football squad before Covid 19 swept across the world, it would be forgivable to be surprised seeing the Vols ranked 15th in the AP Pre-Season top 25. They are one of nine SEC teams in the top 25, and the 7th highest ranked team in the conference. While they hold an impressive ranking for a team which had mostly been trending downward since 2008, and fired their coach for recruiting improprieties during the COVID season (a coach who was still only able to scrape together a 3-7 season while cheating), it is apparent Tennessee is still considered mostly an underdog in the SEC.
A quick look at some basic numbers will illustrate the dire straights Tennessee has been in of late. From the first game in program history all the way up to 2008, the Volunteers’ overall win percentage was 67.13%. That enviable record included the lean, early years where wins were tough to come by, all the way back when Vanderbilt was the premier program in Tennessee (ie, before The Great War and the Spanish Flu). From 2008 to 2021, the team win percentage was under 50%. For over a decade, it was more likely for the Vols to lose than win. Once the 11 wins were vacated due to the aforementioned recruiting violations under former coach and UT pariah, Jeremy Pruitt, the Knoxville faithful had witnessed a dismal (official) win rate of barely over 43%.
After Pruitt was run out of town on a rail, the school took a chance on Josh Heupel, a former Heisman quality quarterback who was considered by many to be a great risk, and a bottom of the barrel, rush hiring. Yet, the past two years have been something of a renaissance for Knoxville. Coach Josh Heupel has not only won 20 games in two seasons, the first time the Volunteers have done so since Phillip Fulmer was roaming the sideline nearly 20 years ago. Also, the recruiting improvements have been remarkable, despite the University self-imposing sanctions even before the NCAA hit them for the Pruitt scandal. The Volunteers boasted a recruitment class ranked 22nd the year Heupel was hired, falling from being ranked 11th the year before. It moved up to 17th after his first year, then became a top 10 ranked group after his team contended for a playoff spot. And Heupel achieved these rankings with only one 5-star recruit for UT during that time. This means that despite rarely getting a blue-chip player in recruitment, despite being hit with fines, restrictions, and lost scholarships, despite playing in the most challenging conference in the country, and despite a recent coaching change, the University of Tennessee appears to be trending upward.
A big reason Tennessee’s arrow appears to be pointed up can be attributed to the one blue chip player UT had gotten under Heupel, Nico Iamaleava. At 6’ 6” and over 200lbs, Nico was a star volleyball player in Hawaii, but improved his passing ability, decision making, and the touch on his throws to become the second best quarterback prospect for 2023. The only player ahead of him was Arch Manning, nephew to all-time UT great, Peyton Manning. Nico chose Knoxville in the spring of 2022, after former UT QB Hendon Hooker had lit up the football world as a transfer, but before vying for the Heisman his final year in college. Nico has only started one game for UT, the Vols’ bowl game against Iowa, but he scored more touchdowns against the Hawkeyes than all other opponents combined.
Hendon’s success and Nico’s decision has also brought in the commitment from Tennessee native George MacIntyre, a national top-10 QB in 2025. Only this month, the top prospect of 2026, QB Faizon Brandon, chose University of Tennessee over Alabama. And it isn’t only future classes. Coming in this year, Tennessee has 4-star QB prospect Jake Merklinger, a pair of top-15 Freshamn WRs in Mike Matthews and Braylon Staley, plus 4-Star OT Bennett Warren. The defense is led by 5-Star rush linebacker Jordan Ross, and complimented by 4-Star defensive back Boo Carter, who might also be a return man, and who has some of the brightest upside for 2024 given the inexperience and injuries in the defensive secondary.
There are also new faces coming in from other schools. The collegiate structure has changed dramatically since the authorization of NIL money, which has led to an even more profound transfer portal. The transfer most fans seem excited about is Chris Brazzell II, a wide receiver who has played a pair of college seasons for Tulane. With a similar build to Nico at 6’5” and 200lbs, he appears to be surprisingly smooth with his moves. He hands appear to be above average for a college pass catcher, he finds the soft spot in zones well, and he has a 2nd gear which can leave a lot of people behind. Needing to give Nico time, Tennessee was also able to bring in Lance Heard, a behemoth left tackle from LSU to block for him.
But it is not just newcomers the fans are excited for. James Pearce became one of the SEC’s premier edge rushers last year. He is contending to be the top defensive player in 2025’s NFL Draft and has been named to almost every major 2024 awards watch list, as well as a pre-season First Team All-American, and #1 on the ESPN College Football Top 100 Player list. Squirrel White, a firecracker at the wide receiver position, has been named to the 2024 Biletnikoff watch list for the top receiver in the country. Bru McCoy will be doing his best to take pressure off White while returning form a nasty leg injury in 2023. Cooper Mays started 2023 slow and injured, but solidified the line with his Center play to help key up close wins and earn a preseason Second Team All-American accolade. Keenan Pili will also be returning from injury, a torn pectoral, to anchor the middle linebackers along with Arion Carter, who got valuable playing time last year working to replace him.
While the talent level for UT is on the rise, those players still need to come together and win games. Despite probable cupcake games against Chattanoga and Kent State in weeks one and three, Tennessee plays a dangerous opponent in their week 2 Duke’s Mayo Classic in the NC State Wolfpack. UT’s first road game is against new SEC opponent Oklahoma University, Coach Heupel’s alma mater. UT will get both Alabama and Florida at home, in back-to-back weeks, but will have to play in Athens against the Georgia Bulldogs, a perennial National Championship contender. Additionally, Arkansas and Kentucky and Mississippi State may not be consistently good teams, but they have proven themselves to be dangerous time and time again. Those teams CAN win any game in any week.
Tennessee’s three games which are considered most likely to result in a loss are the OU, Bama, and UGA games, but don’t sleep on the other opponents. While the game against rival Florida is at Neyland Stadium this year, everyone who has already pinned it as a potential trap game would be forgiven. Tennessee seems to have a letdown game every year, and last year it was the Gators, albeit in Gainesville. The year before it was South Carolina. Tennessee needs to beat the Gators so badly that the 2025 squad is still hurting from it.
Many fans seem particularly excited for the combination of Nico and Squirrell/Brazzell/McCoy on offense behind a revamped offensive line with running back Dylan Sampson leading the ball carriers. While Heisman is a lofty goal for the Volunteers’ signal caller, it is not at all out of the realm of possibility for a team with this many weapons and an offensive minded coach like Heupel. Flipping sides, James Pearce playing the bull-in-the-china-shop role for a defense which could have an overwhelming defensive line gives him opportunities to vastly improve on his 9.5 sack season from last year.
Overall, this team has a chance to be special. They have the highest rated QB recruit for this team since Peyton Manning. They have a bevy of skill players ranging from short speed demons to long rangy guys to thick maulers at the point of attack. The running back stable is stacked to the ceiling. The O line has been reinforced and is led by an All-American. The defensive front seven is scary, and should be getting after just about every QB and ball carrier. UT should be able to go 10-2 as long as they take care of all their likely wins and at least one favored opponent. If the team gels and status healthy, and Nico and Pearce are contending for national awards, 11-1 or even 12-0 are not at all out of the realm of possibility, and the Volunteers should fins themselves in the playoffs.
But it doesn’t matter the recruiting score, the pre-season rank, or the accolades. What matters is the final score of each game. The UT season kicks off Saturday afternoon, August 31st at Neyland Stadium. It will have been 243 days since the Volunteers last took the field.
Let Rocky Top ring, and Go Big Orange!
“Update: This article’s recruitment information was written before 2025 5-Star David Sanders Jr, #2 overall recruit and #1 OT, committed to Tennessee on August 17th, bringing Tennessee’s class rank for 2025 to #6.”